Port Adelaide vs Adelaide Crows Round 16 2026: AFL Prediction & Analysis
Round 16 brings one of the week's marquee matchups as Port Adelaide host Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval — a shared home ground for both South Australian clubs. Goal Square's AFL predictions model has processed 22 factors and 80+ metrics to deliver a Tier 1 Lock call: Adelaide by 30 points. Here's what the data says.
The Goal Square Methodology
Our AFL tips are built from a synthesis of 17+ data sources: the Squiggle model consensus (31 individual AFL models accuracy-weighted), Wheelo Ratings' xScore, xChain and xRating metrics, our proprietary ODELO venue performance model, form trajectory analysis, power rankings, schedule strength, player impact data and bookmaker market signals. No single source drives the prediction — all signals are weighted and capped through a structured rule engine to produce a single tiered output.
Why Adelaide Has the Edge
Adelaide predicted to win by 31 points
Squiggle consensus 19pts, power rank gap 12pts.
The Quick Read
Away by 31pts. Squiggle base 19. Power gap 12pts.
Form Lines and Recent History
Recent form (last 5):
- Port Adelaide: (no recent form data)
- Adelaide Crows: (no recent form data)
Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide's recent form data is limited.
Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Crows's recent form data is limited.
The Team News
No significant team news to report this week.
What the Market is Telling Us
The market has priced Adelaide as the favourite, consistent with our model's 96% win probability. Our predicted margin of 30 points gives a clear reference point for line betting.
Our model has identified the following value opportunities this week:
- +EV: H2H ADE @ $1.33 -- 21.0% edge
As always, AFL tips from Goal Square are designed for tipping competitions and analytical purposes. Always exercise your own judgement when engaging with any market.
The Bottom Line
Our prediction for this match:
- Winner: Adelaide
- Predicted score: Port Adelaide 68, Adelaide Crows 98
- Margin: 30 points
- Confidence: Tier 1 — Lock (96%)
Lock — our highest confidence call this week. The data consistently points toward Adelaide as the stronger team this week. Port Adelaide will need something special to turn the result around. Our AFL predictions model gives Adelaide a 96% chance of winning.
Stay Ahead With Goal Square
Goal Square delivers data-driven AFL tips and AFL predictions every week of the season — built from 22 factors, 80+ metrics, and a structured rule engine that's been refined across hundreds of games. No gut feel. No bias. Just the data.
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